變動性突破戰略是傳說中的交易員拉里威廉姆斯的最高戰略。 叫 longer term secret for short term trading的書 記載了該策略 。 變動性突破交易可以用幾行代碼進行回測試和實際系統交易,成果也非常優秀。 該戰略在變動性大、效率低的市場中比較容易被接受(例如個人比重較大的KOSDAQ和加密貨幣市場)。
理解戰略原理
如果昨天比特幣暴漲,那麽今天也很有可能隨著趨勢繼續上漲。 短期交易因為手續費和套利,再好的戰略也會因費用而遭受損失。 因此,短期內暴漲或暴跌,只有在變動性較大的區間進行交易,才能抵消這些費用。
浮動群集
在變動性小的區間持續的情況下,總有一天會迎來再次擴大的區間。 相反,如果變動性增大的區間持續下去,總有一天會回到變小的區間。
如果將變動性群集和循環的邏輯用於交易,在變動性較小的情況下不進行交易,如果突然出現變動性增大的區間,可以在那一瞬間進入位置,實現差價並結賬。 捕捉那一瞬間的戰略就是突破變動性的買賣戰略。
筆者實際使用的系統交易代碼
戰略:突破變動性的戰略
交易所:幣安(Binance)
資產群:比特幣(Bitcoin)
時間:2017.08~2020.07
買入:(前最高價-前最低價 ) * K)+今日市價突破時買入
賣出:第二天全部賣出市價
***K值乘以0.5~1.0的倍數。 K值的含義是前一天變動性的0.5倍~1倍,在市價上增加,突破時買入,否則不買入。 該戰略是在短期內形成了強勢趨勢,但隨著時間的推移,平均回歸效果會再次下降,因此,在下跌之前,在起始價上短發(time-cut)後擺脫出來的戰略。 簡單地說,就是高價購買,高價出售的戰略。
實戰交易日志:https://coinpick.com/daily_quant
K值 0.5 vs 0.6 vs 0.7 績效比較 。
數字越高,買賣的頻率越低,反應越遲鈍。 0.5和0.7之間的0.6在過去3年里收益率最好。
注意事項
1. 勝率為50~55%左右。 其含義是每2次中就有1次是損失的意思是每2次中就有1次是損失的意思。
2.從長期來看,右上向一個3~6個月期間存在損失區間。 要堅持這一原則。 雖然知道具體邏輯和邏輯的人很少,但即使知道,如果心理上無法克服,也很難維持下去。
3.用手買賣直接在加密貨幣上使用該戰略是不合理的。 不能經常監測24小時運轉的市場。
想更詳細地學習的人請參考systrader79的文章。
systrader79:突破變動性交易指南
請大家不要相信自己的意志和決心。
投資是以對市場的謙虛開始的。
實戰交易日志:https://coinpick.com/daily_quant
2021년 해외코인거래소 순위 및 추천 |
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거래량 |
11조(1위) |
1조 |
3.4조 |
레버리지 |
최대100배 |
최대100배 |
최대125배 |
수수료 |
- 지정가 : 0.02% - 시장가 : 0.04%(1위) |
- 지정가 : -0.025% - 시장가 : 0.075% |
- 지정가 : -0.025% - 시장가 : 0.075% |
거래방법 |
현물+선물+마진 |
선물+주식+FOREX |
선물 |
회원가입
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할인코드
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